Someone asked if I might be going to do a post on 2channel popularity any time soon. Sounds like a good idea to me. Here are numbers for the new summer season shows. I'll add a bit about popularity on the nearest English-language equivalent, AnimeSuki, and a bit of info about TV ratings.
Of the shows just starting this season, Umineko and Bakemonogatari are the clear favorites on the Japanese message board 2channel, with about 43,000 and 41,000 posts, respectively. Not far behind comes Taishou Yakyuu Musume, a surprise hit at about 31,000 posts. (mouseover pics for captions)
Then there is a big drop-off to Canaan and Princess Lover at 13,000 and Tokyo Magnitude 8.0 at 12,000. Aoi Hana follows at 11,000, quite high for either a yuri show or a shoujo show, and this is both.
I'm surprised and pleased at the fairly high totals for Aoi Hana, which is a shoujo-ish yuri show, with much of its appeal centred on nuances of its characters' feelings. It's my favorite show of the season, along with Tokyo Magnitude 8.0. I feel both could develop into anime masterpieces.
It's hard to know how popular Zan Sayonara Zetsubou Sensei and Spice & Wolf II are, since their threads are continuing from previous series and I don't have access to older threads to see where they shift from the previous series to the new ones. But both shows have high overall totals, with Zan Sayonara at 130,000 posts and Spice & Wolf II at 64,000.
Here are the full lists, down to the first 200 threads on 2channel. The numbers are the number of the current thread for each show. A full thread represents a thousand posts.
Umineko no Naku koro ni 43
Taishou Yakyuu Musume 31
Princess Lover 13
Tokyo Magnitude 8.0 12
Aoi Hana 11
Sora no Manima ni 10
GA: Geijutsuka Art design Class 7
Yoku Wakaru Gendai Mahou 5
Element Hunters 4
Fight Ippatsu Juuden-chan 4
Ukkari Penelope 3
Zan Sayonara 130
Spice & Wolf II 64
Needless's low-rent version of Gurren-Lagaan has clearly not succeeded in recapturing the magic of that previous show.
The fairly highly anticipated Umi Monogatari is less popular than I expected. The low total of 4,000 posts for Fight! Ippatsu Juuden-chan, despite its rampant fanservice, are a clear indication of just how disappointing that show has been. The same total for the educational anime Element Hunters, on the other hand, is surprisingly high.
By the way, the "someone" who asked about a post like this was Westlo. Thanks for the suggestion.
Now here is a comparative list from AnimeSuki, the most popular English-language anime board. The numbers are number of posts:
Spice & Wolf ~1000
Princess Lover 994
Tokyo Magnitude 8.0 431
Zan Sayonara Zetsubou Sensei 271
Aoi Hana 239
Sora no Manima ni 203
Umi Monogatari 189
GA Geijutsuka Art Design Class 159
Fight Ippatsu! Juuden-chan 157
Yoku Wakaru Gendai Mahou 151
Taishou Yakyuu Musume 145
Element Hunters 39
Umineko's complete dominance is the most striking thing. Of the also-rans, Bakemonogatari and Princess Lover are surprisingly high, to me, although I like both shows, myself. I expected another favorite of mine, Spice & Wolf II to be popular, since the first series was.
It's interesting to see Taishou Yakyuu Musume near the top of the 2channel list, but near the bottom on AnimeSuki. And Kanamemo, which I find entertaining, is in the middle of the Japanese list, but near the bottom on AnimeSuki.
Here is a very partial list of shows for which I can find the actual TV ratings for last week. Most of the new shows are not included:
Tokyo Magnitude 8.0 (TM8) 3.8% (4.1% this week)
Taishou Yakyuu Musume 1.1%
Element Hunters 1.1%
Umi Monogatari 0.4%
Just for comparison, Saki, which is very popular on 2channel, is at 1.8%, Fullmetal Alchemist and Phantom at 2.0%, Gintama at 3.7%, Doraemon at 10.2%. TM8 will end up in the top ten this week, for the first time since its first episode, and that is a fabulous achievement for a late-night show.